Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 2023 Predictions

     

For those of us in North America digging out from record snowfall and sheets of ice, spring seems months away, but for the classics men of the pro peloton it starts tomorrow in Ghent, East Flanders, Belgium.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is the first race in Europe and might be my favorite. The last two climbs are some of the most iconic scenes in cycling with grown ass professionals struggling up century’s old cobblestones at 19% grades. Except for the last two years when the weather was merciful, every win has come from a small, cold, wind, and rain-battled group, with 12 climbs and nine flat cobbled stretches breaking the race apart. The race starts in Ghent and ends in Ninove, with 57 of the 77 winners having come from the host country though 3 of the past 6 wins were from non-Belgians.

2022

In his first race of the year, Wout van Aert attacked from the leading group before the steepest part of the Bosberg, the last climb of the race, and was able to solo to the line in impressive fashion.

2021

In 2021 the action happened on the Molenberg with Matteo Tretin and Julian Alaphilippe gapping the field. Alaphilippe made a go of it alone but was eventually reeled back in via a massive front group that “sprinted” it out on the line. Sprinted in quotes because Quickstep was the only team with any sort of sprint train left so of course the Wolfpack howled home for the easy win.

2020

Soren Kragh Andersen lit it up the Rekelberg to cause the main split that year. Tim Declercq, Yves Lampaert, Jasper Stuyven, Frederik Frison, Trentin, Jonas Rutsch, and Mike Teunissen eventually joined him in an 8-man front group. Up the 19% cobbled section on the Kapelmuur, Lampaert, Stuyven, and Andersen snuck away to form the podium. In a two-up sprint Stuyven was able to see the jump coming from his countryman and win from the front.

2019

Jumbo Visma hammered the Molenberg for Wout Van Aert (who went up it at 656 watts for a couple minutes), catching the break and splintering the peloton thereafter. A big bunch of 17 took turns staying away till Tiesj Benoot went down in a wet 90 and ended up splitting the group for good. Daniel Oss, Trentin, GVA, Alexey Lutsenko, Dylan Tuens, Tim Wellens, and Stybar formed the front group of six just under 30km to go. They stayed together till the Kapelmuur where poor Oss was dropped like a rock. GVA throttled the last climb, the Bosberg, but wasn’t able to lose anyone. Wellens threw in one Hail Mary at 3km but was easily caught by GVA who dragged everyone else up, making it easy for Stybar to counter for the win.

2018

The race stayed together till the ‘Muur’ where Sep Vanmarcke ripped off the front up the steepest grade. A group of 10 eventually caught Vanmarcke at 13km to go with Astana having the numbers (3). Oliver Naesen made the first move with Astana closing the gap quickly. At 9km Astana’s Oscar Gatto rolled off the front when the pace slowed. He was chased down and the fast finishers took a few turns on the front. When the pace slowed again Michael Valgren took a dig off the front and was caught by Naesen. The gap to the chasers was holding despite how slow and twitchy the group became. Valgren had another dig and was caught again. The gap came down to 25 seconds. Vanmarcke launched and Stybar grabbed his wheel, just as the group came together again Valgren sent his third attack and this time no one jumped on his wheel and he took the win 10 seconds ahead of the charging peloton.

2023 Predictions

Without van Aert to defend his title the field is looking wide open. The weather is set to be sunny with only moderate winds which could mean we see another solo break or bunch sprint.

It’s been quite the exciting year of racing already with some new faces topping the GC of the week-long stage races. 20-year-old Belgium phenom Arnaud du Lie already has three wins on the year to say nothing of the nine he took in 2022. Matteo Jorgenson, fresh off taking stage 3 and the GC at Tour of Oman, is looking on fine form has and had no issues going uphill fast. Tom Pidcock won stage 4 at Volta ao Algarve and seems to be coming into shape after taking only two (early season) cyclocross victories this year. He’ll be helped by Magnus Sheffield who made a huge solo attack during last year’s Omloop and finished 4th in this month’s Tour Down Under.

Older (considering retirement at the ripe old age of 35), but also looking decent has been Alexander Kristoff who won the first stage of Volta ao Algarve and had it not been for Magnus Cort’s incredible performances on stages two and three and a flying Jordi Meeus, he would’ve taken the points jersey. Speaking of who, Meeus, has two second place finishes and three third place finishes already this year for the Bora squad, but may be saving his legs for Sunday’s more traditional sprint finale in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Stefan Kung won the ITT at Volta ao Algarve and has been plenty active making the front group in the last two versions of Omloop and I expect him to do the same tomorrow. Tim Wellens also picked up a win at Andalucia Ruta Ciclista Del Sol and seemed as able as anyone (no one’s been completely able) to pace Tadej Pogacar uphill.

Podium

1. Tom Pidcock (+800)

Having gotten shelled out the back of the front group in 2022 at his first Omloop I expect Tom to come back swinging. INEOS brings one of the strongest teams to this race to back Pidcock with many teammates capable of going with moves or pacing the field to make it easier on the Brit.

2. Arnaud du Lie (+650 to win)

This kid is something else and finally has the chance to race at the highest level on home soil. I’m nervous and excited for him. He’s the oddsmaker’s favorite which is both charming and alarming for someone who has less than a handful of races at World Tour level.

3. Tim Wellens (+2000 to win)

Wellens is on fine form again in February and without a true powerhouse to dominate the field it could come down to a late attack surprise. Of course it’s Wellens so he’s bound to get caught, but with the legs he’s shown this year it could get interesting and there have been more than the bookie’s hold of breakaways succeeding this year.

Use my referral link to sign up for Draftkings and receive a $25 bonus bet1. That’s a $200 payout from a Tom Pidcock win (+800). I don’t officially condone sports betting, but it is the only way I’ll be able to afford a house one day (by investing in meme stocks, not actual gambling, Mom).

  1. Must be 21+ and up Michigan to place wagers. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services Gambling Disorder Help-line at: 800-270-7117. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. ↩︎