Strade Bianche 2023 Predictions
Strade Bianche 2023 Predictions
Named after the colorless roads surrounding Tuscany’s many marble quarries, Strade Bianche is the World Tour’s fashionable new classic. Running in just its 17th affair, the 184km (114mi) race attracts both top GC and classics men to try its steep gravel roads in central Italy. It’s also home to one of the finest finishes in cycling: up the 16% paving slabs to the historical City of Siena. “Imagine the Arc de Triomphe in all brick” Carlton Kirby said some running past. Siena has been home to some spectacular finishes in recent years with two of the last four editions coming down to the last climb up to Piazza del Campo.
2019
Jakob Fuglsang broke from a 14-man group in the steep 9th gravel section (0.8km) after Monteaperti. Wout van Aert caught Fuglsang’s wheel and Julian Alaphilippe was able to get across to the two on the descent. They worked together across the road to get a 25” gap before hitting the 10th gravel sector, a 2.4km wheezer up Colle Pinzuto with gradients reaching 15%. Fuglsang and Alaphilippe dropped van Aert on the first pitch and appeared to have a clear 18km before a duel up the streets of Siena. Wout pulled a Wout and somehow came back just under 1km to go. Wout led out the final climb before Fuglsang slung around up the steepest section. Approaching one of the last technical turns, Alaphilippe buzzed by on the inside and hung on for the win.
2020
Strade restarted pro cycling in the Covid year on August 1st. Temperatures were near 40ºC (~100ºF). Wout went for revenge on the Colle Pinzuto and formed a five-man lead group with Fuglsang, Davide Formulo, Alberto Bettiol, and Max Schachmann. The last sector of gravel, the “tunnel” (Le Tolfe), was van Aert’s launching point for the winning attack. Wout had 30 seconds at the brick gate to Siena and was able to hold it over the chasing climbers behind.
2021
Back to spring racing and back to attacking up Monteaparti with Alaphilippe trying to go clear and managing to drop van Aert and Tom Pidcock to form a five-man group with Mathieu van der Poel, Egan Bernal, Tadej Pogacar, and Michael Gogl. After Colle Pinzuto the group came back together for the last 18km. van Aert led it out into Le Tolfe with van der Poel exploding past everyone, only to be caught by Alaphilippe and later Bernal. It again came down to the final climb to the Piazza del Campo with van der Poel attacking first and then again to ride away from everyone for the win.
2022
Things started getting spicy in the longest gravel sector, the 11.5km Monte Sante Marie, when Tim Wellens made an attack up a steep pitch. Eventually the race broke apart with Alaphilippe pushing the pace at the front. Near the end of the sector Pogacar came to the front put in a dig on a descent. He gapped the field by enough that he decided to keep the power on through the rest of the sector and it was sufficient to hold the gap to the line, 50km later.
2023 Predictions
van den Poel comes in as the easy favorite (+150) although he hasn’t raced on the road this year. His last three races were all cyclocross wins, including the World Championship a month ago. Alaphilippe (+550) looked phenomenal in his first win of the year at the Faun-Ardèche Classic. Pello Biblao (+1600) got 5th last year at Strade Bianche and has been solid all year coming in 4th GC at UAE Tour and Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and 3rd at Tour Down Under. Rui Costa (+5000) has two wins on the year and is looking in some of the best form of his life at 36-years-young. And of course I’m not going to make the mistake of leaving out Jumbo-Visma from my predictions again as they absolutely dominated the opening weekend of European racing by coming in 1st and 3rd at Omloop and taking the top two at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Tiesj Benoot has the best odds at +2000 and will be supremely confident coming off his sneaky win last weekend but watch out for Attila Valter (+3000), the Hungarian national champ, who took 4th last year.
Podium
1. Julian Alaphilippe (+550)
He knows what it takes to get to Siena in the lead group and he also knows what it’s like to get beat up the final climb. I think the Frenchman returns to this race with a vengeance after crashing last year and losing out to van der Poel up in the finale in 2021.
2. Attila Valter (+3000 to win)
After finishing 4th for Groupama-FDJ last year, the 24-year-old now has the backing of the best team in pro cycling. With Tiesj getting a win last weekend, I’m betting Jumbo throws all its weight behind the Hungarian to see if he can take the top step.
3. Davide Formolo (+13000 to win)
This is just the third Strade Bianche for the countryman who finished 2nd in 2020. He’s having a solid year and UAE has perhaps the most talented team in the field with Tim Wellens, Max Sjoerd, George Bennett, Alessandro Covi, Brandon McNulty, and Diego Ulissi. If they work for a singular cause and Wellens gets up the road it could be another shot at podium for Formolo.
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